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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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